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Portugal Liga Portugal 2 race map

Portugal Liga Portugal 2 Season Predictor 2019-2020

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Nacional
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger Farense
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Casa Pia
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Nacional
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Nacional 1 47 47.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Farense 2 45 45.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Feirense 3 42 42.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Estoril 4 36 36.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mafra 5 36 36.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Varzim 6 36 36.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Nacional 1 1.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.0
Farense 2 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Feirense 3 3.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Estoril 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Mafra 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Varzim 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Academica 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Academico Viseu 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Casa Pia 18 6 18.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Cova De Piedade 17 16 17.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Vilafranquense 16 24 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penafiel 15 25 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FC Porto B 14 26 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benfica B 13 28 13.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Nacional 1 1 47.0 47.0 0.0
Farense 2 2 45.0 45.0 0.0
Feirense 3 3 42.0 42.0 0.0
Estoril 4 4 36.0 36.0 0.0
Mafra 5 5 36.0 36.0 0.0
Varzim 6 6 36.0 36.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Portugal 2. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.39 / 1
Form Model Base 1.36 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (17-18) Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1 Nacional 47 47.0 47.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Farense 45 45.0 45.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Feirense 42 42.0 42.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Estoril 36 36.0 36.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Mafra 36 36.0 36.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Varzim 36 36.0 36.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Academica 35 35.0 35.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Academico Viseu 34 34.0 34.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Leixoes 33 33.0 33.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Chaves 32 32.0 32.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Oliveirense 29 29.0 29.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 SC Covilha 29 29.0 29.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Benfica B 28 28.0 28.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 FC Porto B 26 26.0 26.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Penafiel 25 25.0 25.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Vilafranquense 24 24.0 24.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Cova De Piedade 16 16.0 16.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18 Casa Pia 6 6.0 6.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.