Switzerland Challenge League race map

Switzerland Challenge League Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Closest Challenger FC Winterthur
9.2% average title probability
Biggest Model Split Yverdon Sport
Gap score 12.5 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

2 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Stade Nyonnais 10 2 10.0 99.3% 99.1% 99.5%
Étoile Carouge 8 9 9.0 43.2% 39.7% 46.6%
FC WIL 1900 9 9 9.0 33.1% 31.0% 35.2%
Rapperswil 7 10 7.0 11.0% 11.7% 10.3%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 6 12 6.0 7.8% 9.7% 5.8%
FC Aarau 5 12 5.5 5.0% 7.7% 2.3%

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 06 Nov 2026 214.7 12.6% 21.7% 65.8% Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 99.3% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur 05 Dec 2026 214.2 64.3% 22.6% 13.2% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 98.1%
Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 20 Sep 2026 214.1 37.5% 26.9% 35.8% Yverdon Sport: Top 4 86.0% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0%
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur 20 Nov 2026 208.2 46.5% 25.5% 28.1% Yverdon Sport: Top 4 86.0% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 98.1%
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais 23 Oct 2026 204.6 84.0% 13.0% 3.1% FC Winterthur: Top 4 98.1% | Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 99.3%
Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport 18 Dec 2026 204.3 19.1% 23.2% 57.8% Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 99.3% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 86.0%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport 30 Oct 2026 200.8 67.1% 21.3% 11.7% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 86.0%
Stade Nyonnais vs SC Kriens 05 Dec 2026 184.6 22.9% 23.6% 53.6% Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 99.3% | SC Kriens: Top 4 64.4%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Challenge League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 46
Goal Model Base 1.86 / 1.23
Form Model Base 1.38 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (9-10) Form Bottom Finish (9-10)
1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 20 39.5 41.8 1 1 82.5% 92.1% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Winterthur 18 33.6 34.1 2 2 13.3% 5.1% 97.3% 98.8% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Yverdon Sport 15 29.8 31.7 3 3 3.3% 2.6% 79.7% 92.2% 0.3% 0.0%
4 SC Kriens 14 27.5 27.2 4 4 0.7% 0.1% 63.8% 65.0% 0.8% 0.3%
5 FC Aarau 12 23.6 24.1 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 20.6% 7.7% 2.3%
6 Neuchatel Xamax FC 12 23.4 23.2 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 13.7% 9.7% 5.8%
7 Rapperswil 10 22.4 21.3 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 7.0% 11.7% 10.3%
8 Étoile Carouge 9 19.3 17.7 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.8% 39.7% 46.6%
9 FC WIL 1900 9 20.2 19.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 2.0% 31.0% 35.2%
10 Stade Nyonnais 2 9.5 8.2 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 99.5%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
20 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 9 Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 37.4% 26.8% 35.8% 1.28 1.25
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 SC Kriens vs FC WIL 1900 66.8% 17.4% 15.8% 2.52 1.16
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Rapperswil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 26.7% 23.6% 49.7% 1.22 1.74
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur 26.7% 23.5% 49.7% 1.22 1.75
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport 38.1% 27.9% 34.0% 1.22 1.14
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau 38.3% 24.4% 37.3% 1.50 1.47
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 73.4% 17.0% 9.6% 2.28 0.69
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil 44.5% 22.0% 33.5% 1.90 1.63
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais 87.3% 8.8% 3.9% 3.27 0.61
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge 59.6% 21.9% 18.4% 1.91 0.95
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens 48.6% 23.5% 27.9% 1.75 1.27
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport 65.3% 21.1% 13.7% 1.92 0.74
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais 72.3% 15.9% 11.8% 2.59 0.97
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens 38.6% 26.9% 34.5% 1.30 1.21
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau 43.8% 22.9% 33.3% 1.77 1.52
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur 35.9% 24.1% 40.0% 1.47 1.57
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 SC Kriens vs Rapperswil 52.2% 22.6% 25.1% 1.86 1.23
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 18.3% 22.9% 58.8% 0.89 1.80
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 61.9% 18.1% 20.0% 2.54 1.42
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge 74.2% 16.5% 9.3% 2.33 0.69
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 56.9% 21.9% 21.3% 1.95 1.11
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens 66.6% 19.9% 13.4% 2.05 0.79
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Rapperswil vs FC Aarau 51.8% 21.4% 26.8% 2.04 1.43
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 41.6% 22.3% 36.1% 1.81 1.67
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge 47.6% 24.8% 27.6% 1.60 1.16
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur 44.4% 25.6% 30.0% 1.49 1.18
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 SC Kriens vs FC Aarau 61.7% 20.5% 17.8% 2.09 1.03
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 29.3% 29.3% 41.3% 0.95 1.19
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil 64.6% 18.8% 16.6% 2.30 1.09
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC WIL 1900 vs Yverdon Sport 39.1% 23.4% 37.6% 1.63 1.59
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais 64.9% 19.1% 16.1% 2.25 1.03
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport 41.2% 23.9% 34.8% 1.61 1.46
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur 61.6% 23.1% 15.3% 1.74 0.73
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 45.0% 22.4% 32.6% 1.85 1.55
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Stade Nyonnais vs SC Kriens 25.3% 22.9% 51.8% 1.21 1.83
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC WIL 1900 vs Étoile Carouge 58.1% 21.9% 20.0% 1.93 1.04
11 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Étoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais 69.6% 19.4% 11.0% 2.04 0.66
11 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau 78.3% 14.4% 7.3% 2.52 0.64
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Winterthur vs SC Kriens 59.5% 20.7% 19.8% 2.09 1.13
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC WIL 1900 47.7% 20.7% 31.6% 2.14 1.73
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil 53.6% 22.2% 24.2% 1.92 1.22
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Rapperswil vs Étoile Carouge 55.1% 22.7% 22.2% 1.85 1.09
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport 25.3% 23.8% 50.9% 1.14 1.72
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC WIL 1900 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 29.3% 24.1% 46.6% 1.27 1.66
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur 38.0% 24.8% 37.2% 1.46 1.44
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 SC Kriens vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 55.5% 22.4% 22.2% 1.89 1.12

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
20 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 9 Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 37.5% 26.9% 35.7% 1.25 1.42
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 SC Kriens vs FC WIL 1900 65.1% 22.4% 12.5% 1.13 0.85
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Rapperswil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 17.4% 23.6% 59.0% 0.90 1.42
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur 21.1% 24.3% 54.6% 0.81 1.26
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport 27.5% 25.5% 47.0% 0.88 1.21
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 10 Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau 31.5% 26.2% 42.3% 0.58 0.84
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 75.9% 19.3% 4.8% 1.58 0.99
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil 44.2% 25.9% 29.9% 0.86 0.93
23 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais 80.6% 17.1% 2.3% 1.34 0.53
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge 71.1% 20.9% 8.0% 1.16 0.73
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 11 Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens 61.9% 23.0% 15.1% 1.25 1.03
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport 68.9% 21.5% 9.6% 1.58 1.21
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais 68.6% 21.6% 9.9% 0.90 0.53
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens 38.2% 26.8% 35.0% 0.88 1.03
30 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 12 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau 47.1% 25.5% 27.4% 0.81 0.84
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur 23.5% 24.8% 51.7% 0.86 1.26
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 SC Kriens vs Rapperswil 61.4% 23.1% 15.5% 1.13 0.93
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 6.9% 20.4% 72.7% 0.58 1.42
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 66.6% 22.1% 11.4% 1.16 0.85
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge 76.4% 19.1% 4.5% 1.34 0.73
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 64.2% 22.6% 13.2% 1.25 0.99
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens 74.7% 19.7% 5.6% 1.58 1.03
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Rapperswil vs FC Aarau 52.7% 24.6% 22.7% 0.90 0.84
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 30.9% 26.1% 43.0% 0.58 0.85
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge 54.1% 24.4% 21.5% 0.81 0.73
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur 48.6% 25.3% 26.1% 1.25 1.26
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 SC Kriens vs FC Aarau 65.6% 22.3% 12.1% 1.13 0.84
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 16.7% 23.4% 59.9% 0.88 1.42
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil 70.6% 21.0% 8.4% 1.34 0.93
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC WIL 1900 vs Yverdon Sport 26.1% 25.3% 48.6% 0.86 1.21
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais 64.9% 22.4% 12.7% 0.81 0.53
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport 45.9% 25.7% 28.4% 1.16 1.21
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur 67.0% 22.0% 11.1% 1.58 1.26
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 42.6% 26.1% 31.2% 0.90 0.99
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 Stade Nyonnais vs SC Kriens 20.5% 24.2% 55.3% 0.58 1.03
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC WIL 1900 vs Étoile Carouge 56.8% 24.0% 19.2% 0.86 0.73
11 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Étoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais 67.9% 21.7% 10.3% 0.88 0.53
11 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau 79.3% 17.8% 3.0% 1.58 0.84
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Winterthur vs SC Kriens 66.3% 22.1% 11.6% 1.34 1.03
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC WIL 1900 46.4% 25.6% 28.0% 0.81 0.85
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil 67.0% 21.9% 11.0% 1.25 0.93
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Rapperswil vs Étoile Carouge 59.1% 23.6% 17.3% 0.90 0.73
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport 12.8% 22.5% 64.7% 0.58 1.21
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC WIL 1900 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 15.7% 23.2% 61.2% 0.86 1.42
18 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur 42.7% 26.1% 31.2% 1.16 1.26
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 SC Kriens vs Neuchatel Xamax FC 57.9% 23.8% 18.3% 1.13 0.99