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Portugal Liga Portugal race map

Portugal Liga Portugal Season Predictor 2019-2020

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite FC Porto
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger Benfica
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Aves
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split FC Porto
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
FC Porto 1 81 81.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Benfica 2 77 77.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sporting CP 3 59 59.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SC Braga 4 57 57.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rio Ave 5 55 55.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Famalicao 6 54 54.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
FC Porto 1 1.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.0
Benfica 2 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Sporting CP 3 3.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
SC Braga 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Rio Ave 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Famalicao 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Guimaraes 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Moreirense 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Aves 18 14 18.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Maritimo 17 21 17.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Belenenses 16 32 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portimonense 15 32 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vitoria Setubal 14 33 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tondela 13 33 13.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
FC Porto 1 1 81.0 81.0 0.0
Benfica 2 2 77.0 77.0 0.0
Sporting CP 3 3 59.0 59.0 0.0
SC Braga 4 4 57.0 57.0 0.0
Rio Ave 5 5 55.0 55.0 0.0
Famalicao 6 6 54.0 54.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Portugal. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.35 / 1.14
Form Model Base 1.38 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (17-18) Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1 FC Porto 81 81.0 81.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Benfica 77 77.0 77.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Sporting CP 59 59.0 59.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 SC Braga 57 57.0 57.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Rio Ave 55 55.0 55.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Famalicao 54 54.0 54.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Guimaraes 49 49.0 49.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Moreirense 43 43.0 43.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 GIL Vicente 43 43.0 43.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Santa Clara 42 42.0 42.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Boavista 39 39.0 39.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Pacos Ferreira 39 39.0 39.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Tondela 33 33.0 33.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Vitoria Setubal 33 33.0 33.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Portimonense 32 32.0 32.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Belenenses 32 32.0 32.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Maritimo 21 21.0 21.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18 Aves 14 14.0 14.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.