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Europe Conference League race map

Europe Conference League Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite HJK Helsinki
100.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Coleraine FC
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split HJK Helsinki
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
HJK Helsinki 1 3 3.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Apollon Limassol 2 3 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FC Vaduz 3 3 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FK Partizan 4 3 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gyori ETO FC 5 3 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ajax 6 3 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Coleraine FC 93 0 93.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UNA Strassen 92 0 92.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Dila 91 0 91.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 90 0 90.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vojvodina 89 0 86.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sutjeska 88 0 89.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
HJK Helsinki 1 1 3.0 3.0 0.0
Apollon Limassol 3 3 3.0 3.0 0.0
FC Vaduz 4 4 3.0 3.0 0.0
FK Partizan 5 5 3.0 3.0 0.0
Gyori ETO FC 2 2 3.0 3.0 0.0
Ajax 7 7 3.0 3.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Conference League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.35 / 1.05
Form Model Base 1.35 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (92-93) Form Bottom Finish (92-93)
1 HJK Helsinki 3 3.0 3.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Apollon Limassol 3 3.0 3.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 FC Vaduz 3 3.0 3.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 FK Partizan 3 3.0 3.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Gyori ETO FC 3 3.0 3.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Ajax 3 3.0 3.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Borac Banja Luka 3 3.0 3.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 3.0 3.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Rīgas FS 3 3.0 3.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Shelbourne 3 3.0 3.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Austria Vienna 3 3.0 3.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Dinamo Minsk 3 3.0 3.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Hapoel Tel Aviv 3 3.0 3.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Koper 3 3.0 3.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Malisheva 3 3.0 3.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Motherwell 3 3.0 3.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Raków Częstochowa 3 3.0 3.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Rapid Vienna 3 3.0 3.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Auda 3 3.0 3.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Beitar Jerusalem 3 3.0 3.0 27 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Bohemians 3 3.0 3.0 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 Bravo 3 3.0 3.0 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 Debreceni VSC 3 3.0 3.0 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 Dunajska Streda 3 3.0 3.0 29 29 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 FC Levadia Tallinn 3 3.0 3.0 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 FC Lugano 3 3.0 3.0 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 Flora Tallinn 3 3.0 3.0 31 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 Gais 3 3.0 3.0 32 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 HNK Rijeka 3 3.0 3.0 33 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
30 NK Varazdin 3 3.0 3.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
31 Paide 3 3.0 3.0 34 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
32 Panathinaikos 3 3.0 3.0 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
33 Riga 3 3.0 3.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
34 SC Braga 3 3.0 3.0 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
35 Stjarnan 3 3.0 3.0 36 36 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
36 Valur Reykjavik 3 3.0 3.0 37 37 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
37 Žilina 3 3.0 3.0 26 26 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
38 Alashkert 1 1.0 1.0 42 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
39 Başakşehir 1 1.0 1.0 44 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
40 Bate Borisov 1 1.0 1.0 43 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
41 Brann 1 1.0 1.0 40 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
42 CFR 1907 Cluj 1 1.0 1.0 45 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
43 CSKA 1948 1 1.0 1.0 55 55 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
44 Dinamo Tirana 1 1.0 1.0 46 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
45 Drita 1 1.0 1.0 47 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
46 FC Copenhagen 1 1.0 1.0 38 38 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
47 FC Noah 1 1.0 1.0 48 48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
48 FC Sion 1 1.0 1.0 49 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
49 FK Tobol Kostanay 1 1.0 1.0 50 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
50 Floriana 1 1.0 1.0 51 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
51 Gent 1 1.0 1.0 56 56 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
52 Inter Turku 1 1.0 1.0 52 52 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53 Panevėžys 1 1.0 1.0 53 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
54 Polessya 1 1.0 1.0 39 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
55 Spartak Trnava 1 1.0 1.0 57 57 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
56 Universitatea Cluj 1 1.0 1.0 41 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
57 Zimbru 1 1.0 1.0 54 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
58 AEK Larnaca 0 0.0 0.0 66 66 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
59 Ballkani 0 0.0 0.0 61 61 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
60 Derry City 0 0.0 0.0 67 67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
61 Dukagjini 0 0.0 0.0 68 68 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
62 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0.0 0.0 69 69 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
63 FCSB 0 0.0 0.0 58 58 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
64 FK Jablonec 0 0.0 0.0 59 59 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
65 GKS Katowice 0 0.0 0.0 62 62 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
66 IFK Goteborg 0 0.0 0.0 63 63 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
67 Ilves 0 0.0 0.0 70 70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
68 Paks 0 0.0 0.0 64 64 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
69 Pyunik Yerevan 0 0.0 0.0 71 71 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
70 Shkendija 0 0.0 0.0 65 65 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
71 The New Saints 0 0.0 0.0 72 72 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
72 Vardar Skopje 0 0.0 0.0 60 60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
73 Velež 0 0.0 0.0 73 73 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
74 Železničar Pančevo 0 0.0 0.0 76 76 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
75 Zira 0 0.0 0.0 74 74 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
76 Zrinjski 0 0.0 0.0 75 75 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
77 FC Santa Coloma 0 0.0 0.0 78 78 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
78 FK Liepaja 0 0.0 0.0 80 80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
79 HB Torshavn 0 0.0 0.0 81 81 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
80 Hibernian 0 0.0 0.0 82 82 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
81 Ludogorets 0 0.0 0.0 83 83 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
82 Neftchi Baku 0 0.0 0.0 77 77 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
83 NSI Runavik 0 0.0 0.0 84 84 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
84 Valletta FC 0 0.0 0.0 79 79 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
85 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0 0.0 0.0 87 87 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
86 Kalju Nomme 0 0.0 0.0 85 85 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
87 Petrocub 0 0.0 0.0 88 88 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
88 Sutjeska 0 0.0 0.0 89 89 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
89 Vojvodina 0 0.0 0.0 86 86 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
90 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0 0.0 0.0 90 90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
91 Dila 0 0.0 0.0 91 91 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
92 UNA Strassen 0 0.0 0.0 92 92 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
93 Coleraine FC 0 0.0 0.0 93 93 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.