Chile Liga de Primera race map

Chile Liga de Primera Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Season:

Title Favorite Colo Colo

99.5% average title probability

Closest Challenger U. Catolica

0.3% average title probability

Main Danger Team Cobresal

72.8% average relegation risk

Biggest Model Split Coquimbo Unido

Gap score 20.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

3 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team	Pos	Pts	Exp Pts	Avg Title	Goal	Form
Colo Colo	1	54	68.1	99.5%	99.3%	99.7%
U. Catolica	2	42	55.0	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Universidad de Chile	3	42	54.8	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Palestino	4	36	45.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Deportes Limache	5	33	43.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Everton de Vina	6	33	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team	Pos	Avg Finish	Avg Top 4	Avg Title	Momentum
Colo Colo	1	1.0	100.0%	99.5%	+1.1
Universidad de Chile	3	2.5	99.5%	0.1%	+0.4
U. Catolica	2	2.0	99.4%	0.3%	+1.7
Palestino	4	4.0	35.7%	0.0%	+0.6
Deportes Limache	5	4.5	27.9%	0.0%	-1.6
Everton de Vina	6	5.0	22.9%	0.0%	-0.1
Concepción	8	8.0	5.6%	0.0%	+0.7
Nublense	7	7.0	5.0%	0.0%	+0.1

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team	Pos	Pts	Avg Finish	Avg Relegation	Goal	Form
Cobresal	16	21	16.0	72.8%	69.9%	75.7%
Universidad de Concepcion	15	22	15.0	59.0%	65.8%	52.2%
Union La Calera	14	23	15.0	57.9%	52.3%	63.4%
O'Higgins	13	27	13.0	4.5%	5.0%	4.0%
Huachipato	12	28	12.0	2.3%	2.8%	1.7%
A. Italiano	11	28	12.0	2.0%	2.8%	1.2%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team	Goal Finish	Form Finish	Goal Exp Pts	Form Exp Pts	Gap
Coquimbo Unido	10	12	38.5	36.5	20.0
Universidad de Concepcion	16	14	29.9	30.7	20.0
Deportes Limache	4	5	44.7	43.1	14.2
Palestino	4	4	44.8	45.4	12.3
Union La Calera	15	15	30.4	29.4	11.1
Universidad de Chile	2	3	54.6	55.0	10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match	Date	Race Heat	Home	Draw	Away	Why It Matters
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile	01 Nov 2026	222.0	48.7%	24.6%	26.8%	U. Catolica: Top 4 99.4% \| Universidad de Chile: Top 4 99.5%
Colo Colo vs U. Catolica	22 Nov 2026	219.5	55.3%	22.8%	22.0%	Colo Colo: Top 4 100.0% \| U. Catolica: Top 4 99.4%
Cobresal vs Colo Colo	06 Dec 2026	191.6	19.5%	22.4%	58.2%	Cobresal: Relegation 72.8% \| Colo Colo: Top 4 100.0%
Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal	08 Nov 2026	183.6	75.0%	17.5%	7.6%	Universidad de Chile: Top 4 99.5% \| Cobresal: Relegation 72.8%
Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica	06 Dec 2026	178.3	20.1%	24.3%	55.7%	Universidad de Concepcion: Relegation 59.0% \| U. Catolica: Top 4 99.4%
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica	25 Oct 2026	178.2	23.1%	23.6%	53.5%	Union La Calera: Relegation 57.9% \| U. Catolica: Top 4 99.4%
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera	06 Dec 2026	169.4	73.3%	19.5%	7.3%	Universidad de Chile: Top 4 99.5% \| Union La Calera: Relegation 57.9%
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion	01 Nov 2026	167.8	80.5%	15.1%	4.5%	Colo Colo: Top 4 100.0% \| Universidad de Concepcion: Relegation 59.0%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga de Primera. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000

Remaining Fixtures 57

Goal Model Base 1.62 / 1.22

Form Model Base 1.4 PPG

Model Comparison

#	Team	Current Pts	Goal Exp Pts	Form Exp Pts	Goal Finish	Form Finish	Goal Title	Form Title	Goal Top 4	Form Top 4	Goal Relegation (15-16)	Form Relegation (15-16)
1	Colo Colo	54	67.5	68.6	1	1	99.3%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	U. Catolica	42	54.1	55.8	2	2	0.4%	0.2%	98.9%	99.9%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Universidad de Chile	42	54.6	55.0	2	3	0.2%	0.0%	99.2%	99.8%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Palestino	36	44.8	45.4	4	4	0.0%	0.0%	29.5%	41.8%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Deportes Limache	33	44.7	43.1	4	5	0.0%	0.0%	35.0%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Everton de Vina	33	43.6	43.5	5	5	0.0%	0.0%	22.8%	22.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Nublense	32	41.3	41.4	7	7	0.0%	0.0%	5.1%	4.9%	0.1%	0.0%
8	Concepción	31	40.4	41.1	8	8	0.0%	0.0%	4.6%	6.6%	0.1%	0.0%
9	D. La Serena	30	39.0	39.3	10	9	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	2.3%	0.4%	0.2%
10	Coquimbo Unido	29	38.5	36.5	10	12	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.3%	0.8%	1.6%
11	A. Italiano	28	36.4	36.9	12	12	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	2.8%	1.2%
12	Huachipato	28	37.7	37.2	12	12	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.5%	2.8%	1.7%
13	O'Higgins	27	36.3	35.7	13	13	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	5.0%	4.0%
14	Union La Calera	23	30.4	29.4	15	15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	52.3%	63.4%
15	Universidad de Concepcion	22	29.9	30.7	16	14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	65.8%	52.2%
16	Cobresal	21	29.1	28.7	16	16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	69.9%	75.7%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date	Round	Match	Home	Draw	Away	Proj G H	Proj G A
02 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 23	Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato	37.6%	30.2%	32.2%	1.08	0.98
09 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Universidad de Chile vs Nublense	56.1%	24.7%	19.2%	1.63	0.84
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion	60.3%	21.2%	18.5%	2.01	1.02
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Huachipato vs O'Higgins	42.4%	21.7%	35.9%	1.90	1.74
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	U. Catolica vs A. Italiano	67.9%	18.1%	14.0%	2.32	0.95
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena	43.7%	25.2%	31.1%	1.52	1.24
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo	27.2%	26.3%	46.4%	1.05	1.45
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Concepción vs Union La Calera	55.7%	26.4%	17.9%	1.48	0.71
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Deportes Limache vs Palestino	60.2%	20.5%	19.3%	2.11	1.11
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	D. La Serena vs Concepción	41.7%	27.3%	31.0%	1.32	1.10
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido	39.2%	25.1%	35.8%	1.46	1.38
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	A. Italiano vs Huachipato	52.2%	25.2%	22.6%	1.58	0.94
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	O'Higgins vs Cobresal	49.9%	23.3%	26.8%	1.78	1.24
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Palestino vs Colo Colo	35.3%	24.1%	40.6%	1.46	1.58
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina	42.0%	26.8%	31.2%	1.36	1.14
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache	28.5%	25.8%	45.7%	1.12	1.49
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Union La Calera vs U. Catolica	29.4%	23.7%	47.0%	1.31	1.71
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Cobresal vs Everton de Vina	24.7%	22.4%	52.9%	1.23	1.90
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion	80.9%	12.8%	6.3%	2.70	0.63
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera	56.5%	26.2%	17.3%	1.50	0.70
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Concepción vs Palestino	48.1%	26.4%	25.4%	1.46	0.98
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Huachipato vs D. La Serena	41.9%	21.5%	36.6%	1.92	1.79
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano	62.9%	21.1%	16.0%	1.97	0.88
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	O'Higgins vs Nublense	34.5%	27.9%	37.5%	1.15	1.21
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile	41.7%	24.9%	33.4%	1.52	1.33
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido	45.6%	24.6%	29.8%	1.60	1.25
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Everton de Vina vs Concepción	40.4%	30.4%	29.2%	1.12	0.91
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	D. La Serena vs Palestino	47.8%	23.7%	28.6%	1.72	1.28
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Nublense vs Colo Colo	22.8%	23.9%	53.3%	1.04	1.72
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache	56.3%	18.6%	25.1%	2.54	1.69
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal	73.5%	15.9%	10.7%	2.53	0.86
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins	33.8%	27.9%	38.3%	1.13	1.23
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Union La Calera vs Huachipato	46.4%	26.3%	27.2%	1.45	1.05
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Cobresal vs A. Italiano	50.0%	24.9%	25.1%	1.60	1.06
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Colo Colo vs U. Catolica	55.9%	21.2%	22.9%	2.05	1.25
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina	29.1%	27.1%	43.8%	1.06	1.36
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Huachipato vs Concepción	39.8%	25.7%	34.5%	1.42	1.30
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena	57.5%	20.3%	22.2%	2.19	1.31
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile	23.8%	28.9%	47.3%	0.82	1.28
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Palestino vs Union La Calera	68.2%	19.4%	12.4%	2.08	0.76
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense	30.5%	30.2%	39.3%	0.94	1.11
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	A. Italiano vs Palestino	50.7%	25.0%	24.4%	1.60	1.03
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Colo Colo vs D. La Serena	68.8%	17.5%	13.7%	2.40	0.98
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache	41.1%	24.9%	34.0%	1.50	1.35
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Concepción vs Universidad de Chile	29.5%	30.9%	39.6%	0.89	1.08
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins	44.0%	25.4%	30.6%	1.50	1.21
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Nublense vs Cobresal	54.1%	22.0%	23.9%	1.94	1.22
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	U. Catolica vs Huachipato	66.8%	17.7%	15.5%	2.45	1.11
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion	57.7%	23.7%	18.7%	1.72	0.86
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Cobresal vs Colo Colo	22.7%	21.4%	55.9%	1.22	2.02
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Huachipato vs Nublense	38.2%	23.6%	38.2%	1.58	1.58
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	D. La Serena vs A. Italiano	51.2%	24.9%	23.8%	1.61	1.01
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Deportes Limache vs Concepción	52.9%	24.8%	22.2%	1.62	0.95
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido	35.6%	25.6%	38.8%	1.33	1.40
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Palestino vs Everton de Vina	37.5%	24.5%	38.0%	1.47	1.48
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera	69.6%	20.1%	10.3%	1.93	0.58
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica	23.0%	25.0%	52.0%	0.98	1.60

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date	Round	Match	Home	Draw	Away	Home Form	Away Form
02 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 23	Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato	48.8%	25.2%	26.0%	0.81	0.81
09 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Universidad de Chile vs Nublense	67.3%	21.9%	10.8%	1.32	0.99
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion	66.4%	22.1%	11.5%	0.95	0.64
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Huachipato vs O'Higgins	53.3%	24.5%	22.1%	0.86	0.79
10 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	U. Catolica vs A. Italiano	69.3%	21.4%	9.3%	1.30	0.92
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena	44.0%	25.9%	30.0%	0.98	1.06
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo	11.7%	22.1%	66.2%	0.83	1.50
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Concepción vs Union La Calera	69.4%	21.4%	9.3%	1.07	0.69
11 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 24	Deportes Limache vs Palestino	50.1%	25.0%	24.8%	1.04	1.02
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	D. La Serena vs Concepción	46.2%	25.6%	28.2%	0.99	1.03
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido	59.9%	23.4%	16.7%	0.97	0.79
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	A. Italiano vs Huachipato	59.8%	23.4%	16.7%	0.99	0.81
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	O'Higgins vs Cobresal	56.6%	24.0%	19.4%	0.82	0.70
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Palestino vs Colo Colo	29.6%	25.9%	44.5%	1.21	1.50
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina	55.5%	24.2%	20.3%	1.32	1.22
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache	41.4%	26.3%	32.3%	0.81	0.92
25 Oct 2026	Regular Season - 25	Union La Calera vs U. Catolica	16.7%	23.4%	59.9%	0.80	1.34
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Cobresal vs Everton de Vina	31.4%	26.1%	42.5%	0.95	1.22
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion	80.0%	17.4%	2.6%	1.42	0.64
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera	58.3%	23.7%	18.0%	0.83	0.69
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Concepción vs Palestino	52.0%	24.7%	23.2%	1.07	1.02
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Huachipato vs D. La Serena	35.3%	26.8%	37.9%	0.86	1.06
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano	56.7%	24.0%	19.3%	1.04	0.92
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	O'Higgins vs Nublense	37.6%	26.8%	35.5%	0.82	0.99
01 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 26	U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile	55.6%	24.2%	20.2%	1.30	1.20
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido	61.0%	23.2%	15.8%	0.99	0.79
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Everton de Vina vs Concepción	45.9%	25.7%	28.4%	0.98	1.03
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	D. La Serena vs Palestino	46.5%	25.6%	28.0%	0.99	1.02
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Nublense vs Colo Colo	17.0%	23.5%	59.5%	0.97	1.50
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache	69.3%	21.4%	9.3%	1.30	0.92
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal	76.5%	19.0%	4.5%	1.32	0.70
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins	50.4%	25.0%	24.6%	0.81	0.79
08 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 27	Union La Calera vs Huachipato	48.0%	25.3%	26.6%	0.80	0.81
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Cobresal vs A. Italiano	51.2%	24.9%	23.9%	0.95	0.92
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Colo Colo vs U. Catolica	54.6%	24.3%	21.1%	1.42	1.34
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina	24.4%	25.0%	50.6%	0.83	1.22
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Huachipato vs Concepción	37.0%	26.9%	36.0%	0.86	1.03
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena	48.0%	25.3%	26.6%	1.04	1.06
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile	24.9%	25.0%	50.1%	0.82	1.20
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Palestino vs Union La Calera	74.0%	20.0%	6.0%	1.21	0.69
22 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 28	Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense	36.7%	27.0%	36.3%	0.81	0.99
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	A. Italiano vs Palestino	46.7%	25.5%	27.8%	0.99	1.02
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Colo Colo vs D. La Serena	68.7%	21.5%	9.7%	1.42	1.06
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache	43.1%	26.1%	30.8%	0.83	0.92
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Concepción vs Universidad de Chile	40.1%	26.5%	33.4%	1.07	1.20
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins	60.7%	23.3%	16.0%	0.98	0.79
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Nublense vs Cobresal	64.4%	22.5%	13.0%	0.97	0.70
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	U. Catolica vs Huachipato	73.0%	20.3%	6.7%	1.30	0.81
29 Nov 2026	Regular Season - 29	Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion	58.7%	23.6%	17.6%	0.80	0.64
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Cobresal vs Colo Colo	16.3%	23.3%	60.4%	0.95	1.50
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Huachipato vs Nublense	40.0%	26.5%	33.5%	0.86	0.99
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	D. La Serena vs A. Italiano	53.4%	24.5%	22.1%	0.99	0.92
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Deportes Limache vs Concepción	49.9%	25.1%	25.0%	1.04	1.03
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido	51.0%	24.9%	24.1%	0.82	0.79
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Palestino vs Everton de Vina	48.3%	25.3%	26.4%	1.21	1.22
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera	76.9%	18.9%	4.2%	1.32	0.69
06 Dec 2026	Regular Season - 30	Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica	17.2%	23.5%	59.3%	0.81	1.34